Sunday, April 19, 2009
The Dogleg in the Keeling Curve
The Keeling curve is the one you always see with the rising level of CO2. It is that curve of doom that marks, according to the global warming hysteriacs, the demise of human civilization and the earth. The line is a wiggly upward trending line of CO2, starting at 315 parts per million in 1958 and rising now to the now horrific level of 385 parts per million. All of this increase in CO2, we are told, is due to human influences which must be stopped.
Well, not so fast. Consider this, partly touched on in a previous bloghere:
"Wind-driven upwelling in the ocean around Antarctica helps regulate the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the deep sea and the atmosphere, as well as the supply of dissolved silicon to the euphotic zone of the Southern Ocean. Diatom productivity south of the Antarctic Polar Front and the subsequent burial of biogenic opal in underlying sediments are limited by this silicon supply. We show that opal burial rates, and thus upwelling, were enhanced during the termination of the last ice age in each sector of the Southern Ocean. In the record with the greatest temporal resolution, we find evidence for two intervals of enhanced upwelling concurrent with the two intervals of rising atmospheric CO2 during deglaciation. These results directly link increased ventilation of deep water to the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2." R. F. Anderson, et al " Wind-Driven Upwelling in the Southern Ocean and the Deglacial Rise in Atmospheric CO2," Science, 323(2009), p. 1443
What has now come to my attention is a Lamont-Doherty press release that goes with that article. It says:
"The faster the ocean turns over, the more deep water rises to the surface to release CO2," said lead author Robert Anderson, a geochemist at Lamont-Doherty. "It's this rate of overturning that regulates CO2 in the atmosphere." In the last 40 years, the winds have shifted south much as they did 17,000 years ago, said Anderson. If they end up venting more CO2 into the air, manmade warming underway now could be intensified." Source
Now, this is 2009. If the winds changed 40 years ago, shouldn't we see the deep CO2 that this study speaks of? Shouldn't we see some impact on the world's CO2 level?
Yes. So, I took the Keeling Curve and put a straight line fitting the rate of change between 1958 and 1969. That is the blue line on the photo at the top. You can see that in about 1969, CO2 started increasing at a faster rate. That is probably due to the winds shifting south, as they did in the era of deglaciation spoken of by Anderson.
If Anderson et al are right, much of the increase in CO2 is natural, not due to man and his evil life style.